Ethereum changed the world — It’s time to change it again

Photo credit: NASA Webb Space Telescope

There is no doubt that Ethereum was a fantastic step forward in the evolution of blockchain technology. I talked about the idea of messaging on chain at the first ever Hong Kong blockchain conference back in the days and got 85 bitcoin as a speaking fee (yes, I lost the recovery phrase). I talked about food tracing, personal ID records, smart cities and manufacturing, insurance policies and land deeds using blockchain. Essentially I was talking about smart contracts before Ethereum was even born.

Smart Contracts

Smart contacts are the greatest invention since sliced bread. They offer endless possibilities for transmitting self-executing instructions over vast distances in record speed. Like the fax machine made it possible to send documents instantly to the other side of a transaction, smart contract on Ethereum are marvelous, for tracing goods, executing land deeds and, it turns out, powering NFTs – from real utility NFTs like trade documents or financial obligations to silly works of “art” – and even music. So far Ethereum is the medium on which they travel (plus the occasional alternative like Solana which has been catching up lately). Today, we have smart contacts & NFTs on Cardano, Algorand, Near, and any other competitor out there.

The problem is they are all the same.

The problem with smart contracts

Smart contacts are a feature of the blockchain they live on (for now let’s focus on Ethereum). They are limited to simple If/Then logic arguments and require what we call oracles – gateways to information not available on-chain. Like Chainlink for example, which basically has a price oracle monopoly. The most damning shortcoming of smart contracts and NFTs is the fact that they depend on the underlying chain’s condition and suffer from the same problem as the chain itself. Like congestion, scalability and transaction costs (called gas fees)

Enter the State Channel

There is an alternative now available that does away with all these problems. They are called State Channels, and they use the Constellation Network. The very same Constellation used by the US Air Force and trusted by FourSquare. The same Constellation that co-authored the standard for autonomous vehicles with GM and Ford, and the very same Constellation working alongside Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman to protect America’s space assets.

State Channels are chain-agnostic. They can define their own complex business logic and even include good old-fashioned ERC-20 tokens. Most importantly, they make oracles unnecessary, because they validate data from where it originated in real time. They can involve multiple data types simultaneously because of the horizontal scalability of the network. But above all, they become faster and cheaper the more data you throw at it.

NFTs without gas

The same horizontal scalability and the ability make Constellation the perfect place to run an NFT marketplace. Users can be paid out in any currency and buying and selling as well as transferring NFTs.

While this may not matter for Bored Apes and other abominations, it does matter when trade documents, government licenses, legal documents, ID papers, driving permits, public transport passes or airline tickets are involved. You don’t want to pay 60 bucks in gas fees to get the boarding pass for a $100 fight

The same feature of infinite scalability and fee-less transactions makes project like EnterTheVoid ideal of charitable projects, democratic tools like voting systems, public records, tax receipts etc. My own wildlife conservation NFT project Natoura, which pays photographers for their work while sending proceeds from sales directly to conservation societies and animal refuges is using the EnterTheVoid marketplace.

Speed Matters

Many of the taunted advantages of Ethereum alternatives revolve around speed and throughput, essentially two aspects of scalability. Some of them are incredibly fast and cheap. But even as Ethereum is trying to move to Proof-of-Stake it can only scale up to 100.000 tps. A single node in the Constellation Network delivers around 2000 tps, and there are over 5000 nodes already. You do the math. More importantly, the network gets faster and cheaper with every node added. A bit like a human brain growing more neurons.

Let me repeat that: FASTER and CHEAPER the more data you process. If there is anything you take away from reading this article, let it be this:

What I call “classical blockchains” like Ethereum get more and more congested and expensive with increased usage. Constellation State Channels get faster and cheaper. That’s the key.

So while Ethereum changed the world and smart contracts showed us the way to more efficient business processes and much else, I think we’ve reached a bottleneck. No layer or scalability solution will ever solve Ethereum’s trilemma or it’s security problems (it needs cross-chain and multi-chain solutions which are essential band-aids on a patient suffering from bowel cancer.)

Data is everything

Data is eating the world. You’ve had that before. But classical blockchains, while good for many things, are bad at dealing with large amounts of data, especially real data. This is where the Hypergraph shines.

 “Hypergraph technology is a dramatic game-changer in the world of data, as well as for out-of-this-world data. State channels enable project- and business-specific data-intensive applications that require the acquisition, processing, securing, and delivering of any volume or any variety of data and data products from any type of sensor to any data-hungry application. That is not simply enabling data to move at the speed of business, but more importantly state channels are enabling businesses to move at the speed of data. I expect to see state channel technologies inspiring a massive wave of innovation and innovative new businesses in the universe of data,” says Dr. Kirk Borne, world renowned data scientist, astrophysicist, and former data archive project scientist for NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope.

Ethereum is not going to disappear overnight. It will have a role to play in the future, undoubtedly so. It may be ideal for a vast number of applications where speed doesn’t really matter, like ID documents, proof of origin declarations, insurance policies and land deeds. But it is not suitable for anything involving massive amounts of data like military operations, smart cities, smart manicuring, voting systems, tamper-proof real time data applications in physics or law enforcement, payments on a massive scale like cross border, retail, CBDCs, or advertising.

The world before us is a world where data rules. Data that needs to be processed in real time. Massive amounts of data, sensor data, algorithm outputs, legacy databases, unstructured, and multi-conventional, DNA data even, and Ethereum and its “killers” are not cut out for that.

So yes, Ethereum changed the world. But it’s time to change the world again.

The author is the Head of Research at Uphold. To sign up for the world’s safest web3 bank with full crypto services click here.

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In Defense of Apeism

When the first apes appeared, we ignored them. When they procreated at the speed of mice, we called it a fad. When the bored early hominids became zombies, got stoned, and brought along their dogs and other friends, furry or not, hilarious or gruesome, or well, just bored, we said: that’s not going to last. 

Then serious acquaintances changed their Twitter — or worse, their Linkedin — profile pic to some form of comic figure (the writer still struggles to call them “art”). And then Andreessen Horowitz got involved, and Yuga Labs became a proper company, and Apecoin launched (and got hacked) and on the favorite simian (hominid, actually) playground all sorts of — sometimes rather impressive, and truly deserving the label ‘art’ appeared. 

And then, one sleepless night, your writer tried to find a particular person on Linkedin, found him (or rather his monkish self) and next to it where it has become popular to add ones gender identity (as in He/His, They/Them) there were the unmistakable pronouns “Ape/Virtual”. And it was there your writer had an epiphany. 

Those silly cartoon creatures are not, as we were led to believe, signs of the infantilization of the world. They were not the atrocious outcrops of puerile, intoxicated minds. Nor were they the art of the disenfranchised or the “art of web3” as many a pundit has called them. They were something else. 

The entire art movement is an expression of self and in an age where the self seems to shrink even more before the giants of technology, discovery, and infinity (truly so, in the metaverse) possibilities. 

Where once we had one village, one farm, one church, and one self to relate to some deity, wife, children, clan, we then became citizens in nation states, and just another piece of paper in the ballot box. The Internet came, and in an instant we swam in a sea of people and opinions. We handled this by locking our digital selves into echo chambers, apps, and secret societies online. And now, at last, the metaverse has arrived: a wonderful world of endless possibilities, or a dystopian nightmare, destroying the last vestige of what it means to be human. We were lost, and more than ever, we needed a sense of belonging. 

The well-heeled, those with cushy jobs, large family clans, or just a lot of money: they belonged. The jobless twenty-some year old still living with her parents and in sole possession of a few crypto coins and a mobile phone: she was drifting. She was not the Hollywood actress on the cover of a glamour magazine, oh no! She was not a Lady Gaga. She was invisible. 

Worse perhaps for the male of species: he must feed the family but has no means to do so; he has other males threatening to take his place. He is also engaged in a battle for alpha dominance, and adoring Elon Musk is just no longer enough, is it? And the superhero movies are just, well — they are getting worse with every iteration. 

So, abandoning our disillusioned selves in the sea of metaverse experiences, in which “to be human” no longer had meaning, we abandoned all pretense of being human, and became — by pure chance, one feels at first compelled to add — apes. We could have also become snakes, dragons, lizards or lions. No, not lions. Lions lead and dominate, and that is what our insignificant collection of bytes in the metaverse cannot. The age of heroes has passed. 

And thus the Apes were born. They were mostly bored, but one day, one day for sure, they would make it, with dogecoin, or shiba, or any other meme nonsense, and have enough money to belong to a yacht club. 

This is, your writer thinks, the true mystery behind the success of BAYC, and not the backing of a major VC clan, or the chaos of crypto. 

And thus there are lessons to be drawn here for any marketer or any product, lessons in marketing psychology; lesson, we think, that will be essential in any metaverse project, fungible or not 

First an foremost, the vastness of the universe, or metaverse, the mass of people, apes, and creatures inhabiting them, leaves us with a desire to stand out. You don’t want to be a number in an army, you want to have an identity, a unique sales proposition, a special sense of self. IRL (in real life, as it were) it was enough to single like Adele, or have the looks of Ryan Gosling. In the metaverse, anything goes. (Incidentally, once there are too many apes, their value and price will plummet.) 

Secondly, we are truly lost not just in our world, in the universe, but in the unimaginable possibilities of the metaverse. Carl Sagan said the universe was vast. Try infinite meta verses. So we want to belong somewhere. It was the clan at first and then the family. It became the nation state and the movement.  Now it’s the yacht club. (Observe the large number of families, armies, societies and clubs in the crypto space.)  Young men in particular have this in common: they grow up, leave the family, and are forever in search of new home. That can be a wife and children, but increasingly it will be some form of virtual abode. 

And lastly, we don’t live by facts and figures, we live in dreams and aspirations. We don’t go to school to enjoy school, we go to ‘make something of us,’ on the way to another home. We don’t take a job because of what the job offers, but what it could bring in the future (career or money-wise). And we don’t join the universe to sit under a virtual apple tree, but to explore our very self, and see what we could make of it. 

This is why the first step in the metaverse evolution is the ape. After all, hominids started with apes, or that form at least is the earliest one we feel we can relate to. And at the start of our journey we were bored. 

The name Bored Ape Yacht Club, it seems, was not a flippant joke, but a prescient expression of great — or dismal — things to come. 


Forget TA for crypto

Why technical analysis doesn’t work for crypto (at least not as well)

In the stock market, technical analysis is predicated on the completeness of information model, meaning that all the information that can be had about the stock is already priced in. Companies need to publish results, their results are audited, important announcements have to be reported to the regulator and sometimes trading is even halted before an important announcement. None of these requirements and mechanisms exist for crypto assets. While the models have some validity because a large part of the community believes in them, making them in effect a self-fulfilling prophecy rather than a data-driven conjecture, on closer inspection most of the technical analysis does not deliver actionable predictions. 

The double top, the triple top, the V shaped recovery vs. the round bottom, the domed house, the falling and the rising wedge — all of these chart patterns are certainly there but they do not hold the same information content as they do with a properly audited stock market asset. In essence, crypto trades far more on expectations, hopes and predictions then it does on technical criteria or fundamentals. A crypto asset goes up when people believe in it, not because an analyst put a price target on it based on a revenue stream, and financial forecasts. However, because only a handful of technical analysts and even less the general public understand the difference in technical analysis validity, the cryptosphere  is full of wannabe analyst who simply take over the traditional stock market model and apply it to crypto assets haphazardly, ignorant of the essential differences. 

What we are facing is the tug-of-war between individual technical analysts and the wisdom of crowds; and since we have so little information about the financial position of crypto projects available and charts cannot reflect the future prospects of an asset as they do in traditional stock market settings, we need to look at the expectations of crowds, their risk aversion or appetite as a guide to potential future performance. 

Because the movement of crypto assets depends so much on hopes and expectations, on FUD and FOMO and on highly engaged fan communities — often full of impressionable newbies without any financial knowledge — on YouTube influencers and professional coin shillers, on airdrops and giveaways, and lastly on celebrity endorsements (cf. Musk vs. Doge) it may actually be more interesting to base one’s buying or selling decisions on prediction models inherently possible with prediction market apps as the one we have designed at Unity Network. 

If a majority of users in a prediction market votes for a specific outcome, the likelihood of that answer delivering the desired actionable results increases. That is exactly the reason why crypto Twitter and other platforms are full of polls, full of information gathering efforts, which in absence of audit reports, balance sheets, and other solid information build the bulk of the data available to make decisions.


Seeing Taiwan from abroad

I lived in lovely Taiwan for almost 30 years. Now, aged 50, I am retired from a career as an academic, diplomat and marketer and work as an educator and consultant for blockchain and smart tech solutions. For family reasons I have returned to my ancestral home in Europe. Expat privileges (and the unavoidable white privilege) goodbye.

I am having, to put it mildly, a culture shock. I miss nature, the food, the people, and my friends. I miss the privilege of an expat life and the quirky idiosyncrasies of the island nation. I miss the fresh fruit and gregarious gatherings over hot pot. I barely recognize my home.

But the most surprising thing is that Taiwan – seen here from the heart of Europe and European politics – really doesn’t exist in the minds of the people. Looking at Taiwan from abroad is turning out an exercise in frustration.

I have documents to renew, bank accounts to open, insurance policies to sign and a tax number to obtain. I have introduced myself to magazines and journals and contacted old acquaintances. The beautiful island of Formosa pops up everywhere in my CV.

Yet every step of the way, I encountered confusion and ignorance.

“Where? Oh, we were in Koh Sami”

“You mean China!”

“Taiwan? So you speak Japanese?”

And so on. Every foreign soul is familiar with this.

Taiwan, even as it is building an even stronger national and independent identity, has only itself to blame.

Decades of invisibility, in the shadow of China, dominated by the KMT, are hard to overcome. The use of China/Chinese in institutions and corporations is confusing and further muddles the waters. How hard can it be to rename the damn airline so people stop confusing it with Air China. Or take the China out of the countless associations, banks, and other businesses.

Taiwan is a vibrant democracy and enjoys full freedom of speech. It’s a beacon of light for marginalized constituents. Malaysia and Singapore imprisonments gays and Indonesia flogs them. Taiwan on the other hand has the best pride events ever.

And yet the only visible sign in the streets of Vienna is a tourism poster with the sun moon lake, which is special to Taiwan but sorry to say, compared to Austrian alpine a scenery, a joke. There are a million more things to advertise about Taiwan than a little mountain lake with overpriced hotels.

What Taiwan should advertise is bustling night markets, beef noodle soup, and indigenous cultures. Ever took a trip in an Amis canoe or worn a Paiwan head dress? Ever tasted their wonderful cuisine or joined in the flying fish or harvest festivals, combine that with a tour of one of the impressive massive chip fabs in Hsinchu and a trip on the HSR. That’s the real Taiwan.

But sadly, no one in Europe here has the slightest idea what the wonderful island has to offer besides Taipei 101 and Taroko Gorge.

Foreigners seeing Taiwan through a prism of expat experiences are doing a better job advertising the nations virtues than the Taiwan government. Winning medals at these curious COVID Olympics increases visibility too. And hats off to the journos who chose to settle in Taiwan after being thrown out of China.

During the COVID crisis, Taiwan did an excellent job on social media but when I asked around no one here in Europe was aware of the island’s success. Chinese diplomats are spreading infuriating lies on Twitter, promoting tweets and gaining thousands of followers. In comparison, digital marketing of Taiwan‘s achievements is a dismal example of an insular mind and misplaced modesty. Splash those posters of Raohe market, Jiufen, and the Rift Valley rice paddies over every gangway and airport waiting area!

Alas, there are none, even in Vienna, somewhat of a hub because both Taiwanese carriers fly here. Instead they should chose one and have daily flights instead of random 3 days a week.

When I was a diplomat I tried to help and say as much at meetings with the Tourism Bureau. But it wasn’t in my remit and my influence was limited. Now as an independent consultant retained by the powers that be, I can: update the tourism bureau, retire most of its bureaucrats and replace them with social media talent from every corner in the world. Have a proper Instagram feed, talks on Twitter and Clubhouse and proper outdoor advertisement.

Taiwan is so creative. It could do so much more to build a great image. The time to act is now!


Asian Century? Not Happening!

Recent trends show what a pipe dream it is and always was

When I was a university student in the 1990s, everyone congratulated me on my choices of languages (Chinese and Japanese) and subjects (economics, politics). The 21st century, everyone agreed, was going to be the Asian century. Chinese, my uncle told me, would replace English, because there were more Chinese than English speakers. Apparently he had never heard of India and the many other countries where English is spoken. Neither that Chinese isn’t an easy lingua Franca at all, being, as it were, full of culturally specific terminology and concepts. But, Uncle Karl was not alone.

In the stock market, when everyone agrees a stock will go up, it usually goes down. So it was with the Asian century. Demographics were often cited as a factor. They are working against it. The opening of China was noted. China never opened. Democracy in Indonesia turned into Islamic fundamentalism. Thailand has a new king, but the country under him is, as Thais like to say “same same, but different”. No progress has been made in Vietnam except for stronger economic ties with certain other countries. Then there is India.

Let’s look at these one by one.

1. Demographics

Asia is younger than the rest of the world, and older too. Countries like Japan and Taiwan are showing some of the oldest populations on the globe now. The youth of Hong Kong has been frustrated by a totalitarian superstate next door. Well, it says it’s within it’s rights to reclaim territory ceded in a treaty and legally, Beijing is probably right here. The youth of Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, has been frustrated by bad jobs, Islamic tendencies, strict societal norms, a lack of foreign investment, and other factors. So no, pure population economics didn’t usher in the Asian century. In many ways, demographics are doing more harm than good.

2. Opening China

For a while it looked like the Middle Kingdom was really opening to the world. At the beginning of 2021 we find a terrifying balance sheet: re-education, work camps, forced abortions, organ trade; the list of atrocities against Muslims and Uighurs in particular have been terrifying. Dissidents continue to disappear in dismal prisons. During the COVID crisis, China welded millions in their apartments to let them starve. A mass genocide in the best Maoist tradition.

China’s leaders are decrying democracy as a Western evil. They have expelled thousands of foreign journalists. Many of them have resettled in Japan, even more in the Taiwanese capital of Taipei, where rents are comparatively affordable, the people friendly, press freedom guaranteed, and the political discourse vibrant.

In fact, Taiwan is the only country in Asia with a true, albeit sometimes chaotic democracy and a free press, and the only country allowing for controlled immigration in large numbers. If you go to Taichung you are surrounded by Vietnamese for example. The is a huge Indonesian community. The indigenous population has found its voice. Scarred by decades of Chiang Kai-shek dictatorship, no country in Asia is now more tolerant.

However, all that does not amount to an Asian century.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative

As early back as 2019 some scholars sang the praise of Chinese value diplomacy.

Paragh at NSU in Singapore writes “The Belt and Road Initiative is the most significant diplomatic project of the twenty-first century, the equivalent of the mid-twentieth-century founding of the United Nations and World Bank plus the Marshall Plan all rolled into one. The crucial difference: BRI was conceived in Asia and launched in Asia and will be led by Asians. This is the story of one entire side of the planet—the Asian side—and its impact on the twenty-first-century world.” He is quoted with that view in a number of WEF publications.

What tosh! The author seems to belong to a dwindling group of scholars who actually believe the propaganda of the CCP.

The BNR turned out not be anything but a shining beacon of the Asian century — rather it is a tool to exert political control over weak countries and lure others with cheap loans to strengthen the influence of China in Central Asia and Africa. But European countries too are falling prey to Beijing. Serbia and Italy in particular have taken large sums of money and allowed the propaganda arm of the Chinese Communist Party. Somewhat unexpectedly, France is the home of the largest number of Confucius Institutes in Europe. Confucius Institutes are part of the CCP propaganda machine, to make sure the world sees China in a favorable light.

3. Indonesia and Malaysia

With Suharto gone, the most populous country in Asia was supposed to turn into a paradise. Instead it is a haunting nightmare for women, gays, and non-believers. It is well on the way to a government with strong Islamic tendencies. As an economic powerhouse it is a failure. A jungle of regulations, lack of productivity, but also bad infrastructure and unfavorable geography as well as lack of resources make the worlds largest Muslim country a bad choice for manufacturing.

In Malaysia, whilst not quite as bad, a similar trend towards fundamentalism is discernible. What’s more, the country is plagued by corruption in all levels of government and administration. Foreign investors report that it nay impossible to operate without constant payment of bribes.

The policies of the government favor Malays; politics and planning follow very local and narrow considerations without any greater vision. A gerontocracy is keener on looking after its own interests than the greater good.

4. Thailand and Vietnam

Two close countries, two different regimes, same outcome: stagnation. In Thai we call this “same same, but different”. That’s the same as “chabuduo” in Chinese. The monarchy even with its new king has introduced no reforms; no policies at all, when it comes to that.

Vietnam has opened somewhat and the Communist Party isn’t as visible. Thousands of Taiwanese companies produce there. But all the changes are superficial. People still leave in droves.

The other countries of Indochina, Cambodia and Laos, are basically Chinese vassal states anyway.

5. India and Japan

There is hope here. India has recently discovered a new basis of friendship with Taiwan. There is too much competition with China, too many border conflicts, (thankfully) too much indigenous pride in the virtues of democracy.

As poor as India may still be, it is the only country with the population size to match China. There are many problems to solve: manufacturing in China is easier, because a dictatorial regime and the work ethic of the Chinese appeal to exploitative business models.

The second glimmer of hope is Japan. It has such a rapidly aging population and aversion to immigration that it leads the way of innovation in many technological sectors. However, we are talking here about technology, not populace.

6. Singapore

As for Singapore, the model police state seems to see itself more as a conference venue than part of a larger continent. It has its own racial problems, its population and surface area are tiny, and beyond dominance in certain sectors like services and banking, an excellent school system, etc. the city state is arguably a success, but not a pillar of an “Asian century”.

6. Institutions

The cross-border institutions of Asia are almost universally either plagued by the dominance of China, or cronyism and infighting, or all three together. The financial ones are controlled by China to dole out loans, and the political ones like ASEAN haven’t achieved anything for the entire span of their existence.

The rest of the countries, like Pakistan, the Central Asian states, Mongolia, etc. are little more than footnotes. Turkey and Russia see themselves as European more than Asian. The Philippines are to this day an American outpost more than a part of an Asian heritage.

So if there is a Asian century, it’s only pillars will be India and China. And China has lost all respect after the Coronavirus crisis, suppression of dissidents, genocide of the Uighurs and slaughter and silencing of Hong Kong youths fighting for the freedom of their home.

If the world continues to stand idly by as China wreaks havoc on the world economies and our values of freedom and liberty, it may be a Chinese century and a very volatile one. An Asian century it is not.

Then Whose Century is it?

If the 21st Century belongs to anyone, it is America. But the truth, as always is more nuanced.

1. United States

With a young population, the best research institutions and universities, a vibrant, risk-friendly venture capital culture and generous immigration for talent, the U.S. will continue to dominate the world. If one country will set the tone for this century, it is the United States of America.

2. Europe

Despite the fears of Islamization, unfavorable demographics, and focus on conservative, risk-averse values, Europe is leading the way in many other areas, such as technology in certain sectors, research and development, and trade. With or without the idiosyncratic United Kingdom in it, Europe is a good choice when it comes to a focus for this century.

3. Corporations

More than ever it us becoming increasingly obvious that corporations not countries are dominating the world. From Apple so Elon Musk’s SpaceX, from Amazon to Zoom, if you look at the Nasdaq 100 you will find that most of the fuel that powers the world is listed there. Corporations like Google or Microsoft are under scrutiny for their dominance already. This will only get worse, but is too intricate a subject to be sufficiently thoroughly discussed her

4. Technological solutions

If its not corporations per se that dominate this century, it is technology in general. I now have a trading and banking solution that exists only on my phone. I actually closed the traditional brick and mortar bank account I have had since childhood. If you want to wire me money you can use any of 15 methods. There is no need for me to visit my insurance company, my grocer, my publisher, hire a translator, a lawyer, a shrink, and for most things, even a doctor. Most serviced now exist only in the digital realm. That makes them vulnerable to issues of cyber security, yes, but it also makes them a dominant force in the current century. Perhaps medicine is the only real service we need. Perhaps hospitals are the only really local institution that must cater to our physical needs. After all, you can’t undergo surgery on your phone yet. Everything else … reach for that smart phone or whatever gadget comes next.

In short, the 21st century doesn’t belong to any one country or continent. It belongs to people who lead the way to a truly digital age.

Martin Hiesboeck

My Main(net) Impressions

Mainnet 22 was my first conference post the Ethereum Merge. I came back from it with a mixed patchwork of emotions and ideas. The same patchwork Ethereum and DeFi overall is now.

Three things stand out: Fore one, the absolute unwillingness of speakers to engage with other projects or viewpoints. Every panel was a shill fest rather than a constructive engagement. Second, the recalcitrant insistence that DeFi is not in trouble. Even after the Wintermute hack. Where a CEO had to defend an attach on a single point of attack, none of which spells decentralization. And thirdly, the fact that every other project out there is trying to fix/improve something that is wrong with Ethereum. That is not a sustainable business model.

The unwillingness of crypto bros to say good bye to existing solutions and embrace the new and promising alternatives says a lot about how immature crypto actors are. Most of them don’t have a lifetime experience assessing competitive threats or even know how to run a company. They are coders, or directed by coders, and led to the slaughter by greedy venture capitalists. This is exactly the formula for Solana & Co — technically worthless or at least misguided, but an easy sell with the right marketing. One hopes the next gen players Aptos and Sui don’t fall into that same category.

All the while, the more serious contenders like Algorand, Quant, even Ripple, were absent (Ripple does have a booth everywhere, but nobody to attend it) and doing their own thing. Algorand Decipher is in November. Others were relegated to the Sponsored Room, which is basically paid advertising, which Avalanche desperately needs at this point. One would have liked to see more alternatives, more future proof technology at a Messari event. But then again, their sponsorship now comes mostly from Circle, which is – not to put to fine a point to it – a dollar lobby.

There was a Hiro booth (programmable Bitcoin) and a few other minor projects not getting the attention they deserved. Radix seemed lost in the overall Etc-self congratulatory mood. Vitalik only joined via video. The OFAC event was embarrassing.

That’s the one side. On the other, I met with bankers and fund managers, regulators and lawyers, who used the event to meet people only peripherally interested in the future of Ethereum. It is mainnet after all, one of the key events in the crypto calendar. It is growing up, and I will be back next year.

The case against CBDCs

You know me. I’m tweeting about #digitalassets all day long. I’ve been involved in eight central bank digital currency #CBDC trials. I live and breathe “crypto,” as I shall no longer call it. (Digital asset with many classes)  I hold a ton of QNT from back when it was dirt cheap. 

And yet. Coming out of three meetings with the MIT, a Washington Thinktank, and a large hedge fund, I am more than ever skeptical that CBDCs are a good thing. At least not now. 

Here is the feedback from people who actually decide our financial future ) heads up: that’s not you!) 

  1. Financial inclusion my arse

Electronic money is said to create greater inclusion. It only does so when people actually have money to buy devices and access to banking. Millions of refugees, immigrants, poor have no way to get proper KYC. 

  • Privacy? What privacy? 

We can’t have citizens transactions in a public blockchain. I don’t what anything you know where I spend what. We need privacy for firms too. If everything is on a public blockchain  we no longer have these secrets nor competitive advantage. Business needs a certain amount of opacity. 

  • Cybersecurity

Just because blockchains themselves are safe, the projects that use them are not. Few see DeFi projects have any kind of cybersecurity awareness. Not a week goes by without another hack. 

  • Big brother

Digital assets give too much power to the government. They make it easier to respond to crisis, but I really don’t want to live in a world where the taxman knows my tax bills by simply going to a chain explorer. 

Let me rant on

None of these arguments make me quit my membership in the lobbying groups I’m working in. I won’t sell my Quant. But they make me think that perhaps there is a reason why repressive dictatorships and failed states like China are the first to adopt big brother money aka CBDC. And why the West has been extremely hesitant to move forward. You don’t want the people to trade on XRP – it’s a private company profiting from your daily booze buy.  Nor do I want Circle control my USDC spending. And after all, what is the difference between a CBDC and a Stablecoin pegged to the fiat at digital national currency is set to replace. There is none. 

What’s left are the less desirable features of a CBDC: control. And that goes against the grain of #crypto wisdoms and #web3. 

The payment rails we have can only be improved by smart token with algorithmic components like cash flow.  

What about a CBDC that includes sustainability and cashflow calculations or inflation targets in the algo.  Such a coin would be an algorithmic stablecoins by any other name but still be sufficiently pegged to be indistinguishable from fiat on a blockchain. 

And then there is Deloitte proposal of using Bitcoin as a CBDC. Hello Bitcoin Maxis. Feast on that. Expect nobody wants a national currency volatility largely unrelated to a nation’s economic output or transparency without accountability. 

Maybe what we need is programmable money with zk proof as Israel seems to think. But even that is something your average woman on the street won’t trust. At least not until you get a cashback or other benefits from it. 

The people clamoring most for national digital currencies are people whose fans to profit from their adoption. That alone makes me suspicious. Why is Ripple a sponsor at every CBDC forum? Why is Accenture so involved? It’s not for idealistic reasons. And not for #inclusion or #equality. It’s for profit. 

And the one thing the government shouldn’t profit from is your freedom. In my world view at least.  

The American idea of not trusting government and preferring private enterprise is rubbish. America has huge infrastructure deficits. Crumbling buildings and potholes everywhere. Collapsing bridges and overflowing sewers. Believe it or not, the government is actually good for something and removing it from the equation is a program. Where is the right balance?

The ultimate rationale why a government would want a traceable digital asset is money laundering and taxation 

The state of CBDC is like my Facebook status. It’s complicated man.

On Oracles

The future according to XYO

Even though we aren’t experiencing the global adoption bull-run we may have wanted in 2022; we see extensive innovation and recognition. The industry is innovating quickly, whether it is legal regulation, a faster and more scalable network, or a potential blockchain interoperability solution. Today, we are here to talk about the XYO network ($XYO) – a network that claims to be the world’s first Reality Oracle.

What is an Oracle?

An “oracle” acts as a bridge between blockchain networks and the real world. Oracles will be an extremely beneficial tool within the ecosystem. They will enable decentralized networks to access and consume external information, such as data from central banks or public companies. This technology acts as a third-party service that allows communication and integration between blockchains and the outdated legacy systems currently in use (which have never been able to interact with newer systems). In essence, if a network can create an oracle that can successfully operate on a global scale, it could be the missing puzzle piece in creating an entirely data-driven, connected world.

Who is XYO?

XY Labs launched the XY Oracle (or XYO) network in May 2017. On the front page of their website, it says, “Introducing the world’s first Reality Oracle.” Knowing the potential impact this could create in the blockchain ecosystem; we had to fact-check this claim. When looking at XYO Network’s top 15 competitors in its sector, their claim seemed to be true. But, in almost all sectors of life, the first generation of technology doesn’t automatically make it the best (and, in our case, the most highly adopted solution). What the XYO network does not put on its website is that Chainlink Labs launched its oracle solution less than 30 days later, which is currently the most widely used oracle network in the blockchain ecosystem. Usually, competitors in a business are considered a threat — but not in this scenario. Instead, the XYO network partnered with Chainlink Labs to improve interconnectivity between data and blockchains by providing seamless data and chain-to-chain integration.

Along with this favorable partnership, the XYO Network has also shown continuous system improvements. On February 28th, 2022, they unveiled their next generation of technology, XYO2.0. This update allows experienced and inexperienced developers to set up an XYO cloud service and participate in a seamlessly connected worldwide digital economy. This technological improvement helps blend familiar legacy systems (such as APIs and SDKs) with complex blockchain systems. The protocol is designed to improve data validity, reliability, and value, as their solution could help build a global data-driven marketplace.

What does this mean?

Oracles (or a similar concept) will play a vital role in creating an efficient ecosystem within blockchain technology. It is apparent that blockchain technology improves how the world can collect and record information, but that does not eliminate the fact that 99+% of information in the world is currently stored outside of the blockchain ecosystem. The success of XYO Network (or likewise projects) will increase the likelihood of mass adoption, as it will empower the current outdated legacy systems to integrate, communicate, and enhance their system proficiency in a blockchain structure. We want this sector (Oracle tokens) to win, whether it is XYO Network, Chainlink, Band Protocol, or DIA. Whoever succeeds within this industry sector will be playing a significant part in connecting blockchain networks to the “real world.”


XYO Network was the first network to provide an oracle, or at least the first to be realistically implemented. With a recent network upgrade, a partnership with the sector’s industry favorite (Chainlink: $LINK), and an extraordinary amount of network growth in 2021, the XY Oracle network should be a project that is on your watchlist. Not for an investment opportunity – but instead, because of their mission. Their protocol and intended solution could effectively solve a problem that is currently diminishing blockchain technologies’ ability to onboard current information and data stored throughout the outdated but popular legacy systems used today. Oracles (or similar solutions) will be the superglue for connecting and integrating the current, real-world data with the new and upgraded blockchain system we all love.

If we want to see enhanced blockchain efficiency, we should all be cheering for enhanced interoperability.

DAG for Dummies

Of Freeways and Helicopters

DAG technology or directed acyclic graph models are the future of blockchain, as they are on track to providing solutions to fulfill some of these common problems we commonly see in the space.  The solution pertains to the overall structure of how the technology integrates, communicates, and connects.  

As blockchain technology gains traction and provides a proven track record of benefits, developers and users are beginning to see some of the weaknesses and issues within the standard blockchain methodology.

Ethereum, along with most blockchains structures, uses a model representing a chain to operate.  So-called layer 1 blockchains (like Ethereum) act as highways and freeways for vehicles to drive on.  Even though we can successfully travel on highways, we are all aware that they become congested with high-volume traffic, leading to less efficiency (or toll charges, i.e. gas fees) .

Ethereum’s blockchain is like an overcrowded, congested highway, like many others with similar blockchain-like structures. The initial wave of new blockchains tried to solve the problem of scale and congestion by improving the highway (making it wider, or raising the speed limit.) These highways are all Layer 1, built above the ground (Layer 0).

On these highways travel different vehicles: passengers cars, trucks, busses, with various speeds and configurations: some for freight and some for people. Big SUVs with one occupant and tour busses with many. This is the layer 2 solution, improving throughput, speed, efficiency, or cost on the freeway.

A current problem in the standard blockchain model pertains to miners being forced to compete for new blocks to add to the chain.  This model creates aggravated competition due to a “block” having to be completed before the next begins.  This increased competition among the miners slows down the process for users while increasing the cost.

In this simile of freeways and cars that travel on them, Constellation ($DAG) is a helicopter. It is not working with blocks but vectors, it can transport information even if the highway below is congested. In a matter of speaking, it doesn’t even relate the ground (Layer 0); it doesn’t care about terrain. Calling $DAG a Layer 0 solution is like calling aircraft “ground vehicles”. These DAG models use nodes with multiple parent roots to process transactions vertically and simultaneously, thereby eliminating the conflict between miners over who gets the next block in the chain or, in our real-life comparison, getting from point A to point B on an overcrowded highway.

As blockchain technology evolves rapidly, many developers are beginning to eye DAG’s structure, as they believe it may be a turning point in creating a more secure, effective solution in the space.

The directed acyclic graph model was first introduced in 2015.  While it still needs fine-tuning, it is slowly enabling solutions to current issues we see in traditional blockchain technology: the ability to remain decentralized while offering a scalable, speedy, and secure network.  

There is a high likelihood we will begin to see this model of cryptography being implemented in the space, as it is gaining the attention of many due to its ability to provide a more cost-effective solution.  

And let’s be honest – what is the use of sitting in traffic on Route 66 (Ethereum) if we had access to a flying car (DAG). No traffic jams, not traffic lights, no collisions. Well maybe some mid-air collisions. But that’s for different blog post.

Dr Martin Hiesboeck is the head of blockchain research at Uphold Inc. and Founder of the world-renown consultancy Alpine Blockchain Consultants.

What governments want

The future of money isn’t what you thought it’d be

2021 was the year the world learned the acronym CBDC — central bank digital currency. It seems like a logical next step in the history of money. Digitize the currency we have and call it the digital dollar, euro, krona, neira, peso, won, dirham, yuan or yen, rand or rubel.

There is only one problem with it: central banks don’t want CBDCs.

It is one of my jobs to advise central banks on the adoption of crypto currencies and electronic payment systems. Every single meeting I’ve joined in the last three months of 2021 ended with the same conclusion.

„We are a central bank. We are the arbiter of the national fiat currency. We control the banking system. We must stay in control. And, most importantly, we don’t want to deal with retail.“

The mindset, structures, tools and the sheer will to deal with the general public are absent. Therefore, if we intruduce a digital version of our currency we no longer need banks to control checking and savings accounts, the distribution of fiat currencies through retail banks and ATMs, the administration of loan schemes and government bonds, or even the transfer of money from one account to another. All that can be done cheaper and faster with the digital form of currency. At the end of the day, digital money, they fear, will make them obsolete.

China was the first country to realize that the only real use of digital currency for the government was to spy on citizens. It’s eCNY is used to track spending patterns, identify illegal money flows and support the social credit score system of a totalitarian regime.

If a digital version of the currency would take hold, dominated and administered by a central bank, it would have to come with the same guarantees as fiat currencies. Its supply would have to be pegged to the fiat version as well as its value. It would, except for its electronic properties, be the exact same as the fiat version, without the need for banks to administer it. It would, over a relatively short period of time, destroy the banking system. Decentralized finance solutions would take over the savings, yield or interest bearing properties; DeFi investment consulting operators would create funds and administer payments, from social security, insurance, pensions to … you name it. The banking system as we know it would collapse.

We can’t have that, government say. There are too many jobs at stake for one, too many vested interests. Older and more tech averse generations would balk at the idea of having no more cash at hand (cf Sweden). Anonymous cash drives not just church collections in the pew, but is the underpinning of corruption and the entire grey economy. Political parties would lose voters, as all payments become traceable and thus taxable. No central bank wants to takes responsibility for that.

Why not, central banks say, let crypto be crypto issue a stable coin instead. Leave the responsibility to the issuers, let them bear the cost of introduction, and see how the electorate responds. If things go awry and wallets get hacked, the government can be swiftly absolved from all responsibility.

There will be many different stablecoins, some issued by companies like large retailers, think Walmart or Apple, some by DAOs, one to run on every blockchain, pegged or algorithmically rebased, audited or not. Let banks, insurers and credit card firms figure out how to deal with it. If you want to see the future of money, look at VISA and Mastercard with their vast payment networks. No government will bat an eyelid if Ripple fails. If it all goes well, banks will pat themselves on the shoulder and say: you see, we gave you this magical Internet money. If it all goes pear-shaped, they cry “We told you so” and will step in to save the day.

If 2021 was the year of the CBDC, 2022 is the year of the stablecoin. Safe , sound and predictable, they won’t rock the boat and make for easy accounting and taxation.

Stablecoin will remove the need for exchanges, centralized or decentralized, and other fiat-crypto bridges. They will be traced and tracked even better than fiat transactions. They are the antithesis to bitcoin, they are pro-establishment and anti-freedom. They are the last-ditch effort to save a broken system.

The one thing they will enable is DeFi. They even reduce the need to regulate DeFi operators. As long as governments can control in the (electronic) money supply they won’t have to care too much about what companies do with it. Certain products like securities and loans backed or issued in stablecoin will fall under existing laws, many others will be allowed to operate freely under the motto caveat emptor without threatening the status quo.

Here’s to the future of money. It’s not quite what you expected.

Unstructured data provides equal risk and opportunities for businesses

This article is originally posted on Nightfall.ai

Unstructured data is projected to account for approximately 80% of the data that enterprises will process on a daily basis by 2025. Data breaches and other security issues get a lot of attention in the media, but all businesses working with data, especially data in the cloud, are at risk of data loss. Preventing data loss can be difficult for a number of reasons.

IDG projects that by 2026, there will be 163 zettabytes of data in the world. To put that in context, one zettabyte is equal to a thousand exabytes, a billion terabytes, or a trillion gigabytes. The astronomical amount of data transmitting, living, and working in the cloud is just one of the complications that make securing data a tough task for businesses to manage. Of all the unstructured data in the world, most of it goes completely unused. According to industry analysts IDC, more than 90% of unstructured data is never examined. This means large portions of data float around unsecured and underutilized for many businesses.

That’s why it’s important to understand where unstructured data comes from, why it’s so hard to pin down, the risks of not securing unstructured data, and the rewards of bringing that data into a structured environment.

Hiding in plain sight

Unstructured data can come from almost any source. Nearly every asset or piece of content created or shared by a device in the cloud carries unstructured data. This can include:

  • Product demo videos on your website
  • QR codes for discounts and deals on an e-commerce app
  • Podcasts and other audio blogging files hosted on your website’s blog page
  • Social media messages on platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn

Internal communications and collaboration platforms are major sources of unstructured data. Think Slack, Confluence, and other SaaS applications where many people do their daily work and communicate with colleagues. Most cloud-based applications like these allow unstructured data to pass through massive networks to be shared, copied, accessed and stored unprotected.

IDG Communications published an article written by then-Pitney Bowes Software Vice President Andy Berry in 2018. Berry commented on how the modern workplace approaches data and why these norms contribute to the data loss problem, citing one study that found enterprises using almost 500 unique business applications. SaaS applications generate data that can quickly become obsolete, unusable, and eventually inaccessible.

Data powers everything we do in our professional and personal lives, but with little to no oversight on data hygiene, we often miss out on key opportunities to improve security blindspots and maximize data performance.

A complex problem

The various sources of unstructured data show how complex data loss can be. Many problems with DLP start with the three V’s of data — volume, velocity, and variety. It’s hard for humans and manual review to keep up with the staggering amount of data, speed of data proliferation, and the many different sources of data.

Adding to the problem is the fact that unstructured data is very difficult to organize. It’s impossible to dump every piece of unstructured information into a database or spreadsheet, because that data comes from myriad different sources and likely doesn’t follow similar formatting rules. On top of that, finding unstructured data through manual processes would take more time than there are hours in the day. It’s not a job for humans.

Other roadblocks to unstructured data collection include increasingly stringent privacy regimes, laws that protect intellectual property (IP) and other confidential or proprietary information like trade secrets, and businesses communicating across different security domains between the cloud and traditional hard-drive based storage systems. Information security is evolving at lightning speeds, but some schools of thought are still based on older priorities that focus on preventing outsider threats. It’s important to protect an organization from malicious actors, but what about good-natured, everyday workers who don’t know what they don’t know? That can still hurt an organization in tremendous ways.

Unstructured data isn’t all bad news. It can also be an opportunity for organizations that can recognize two main ideas. First, that this data must be gathered, protected, and understood. Second, that there’s value in all the data that is currently going unused. Computer Weekly cited sources that estimate modern businesses are utilizing as little as 1% of their unstructured data.

Our world runs on data, and each person interacting with apps, platforms, and devices contributes to the growing data reserves. When organizations think about gathering data to help with marketing, business intelligence, and other key functions, they must also factor in the impact of unstructured data. Unstructured data presents equal risk and opportunity for business leaders. When that data lives in the darkness, its only impacts are negative. But when data is brought into the light, we can use that data to be smarter and better at work. 

Solving the unstructured data problem

Unstructured data is a major concern for organizations using cloud-based collaboration and communications platforms. Productivity relies on environments where co-workers can share ideas and messages quickly, without fear of exposing sensitive data. Nightfall, a data loss prevention (DLP) solution, provides much-needed security for today’s most used communications and collaboration platforms like Slack, Confluence, and many other popular SaaS & data infrastructure products.

Since these applications lack an internal DLP function, and each allows for the lightning-fast transmission of massive amounts of data, Nightfall’s machine learning based platform is an essential partner for many organizations handling sensitive information like PII (personally identifiable information), PHI (protected health information), and other business-critical secrets. Nightfall’s three step approach allows businesses to discover, classify, and protect unstructured data through artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML). Our solution makes sense of unstructured data, while traditional security solutions solely rely on users to help categorize data through methods like regular expressions (regex), which have limited accuracy in unstructured environments.

Each step of Nightfall’s ML solution is critical to the process of DLP. Discover means a continuous monitor of sensitive data that is flowing into and out of all the services you use. Classify means ML classifies your sensitive data & PII automatically, so nothing gets missed. Protect means businesses can set up automated workflows for quarantines, deletions, alerts, and more. These three arms of DLP save you time and keep your business safe — all with minimal manual process or review oversight from you or your staff.

Helping businesses identify and access unstructured data

Data is a part of life, especially as remote work becomes an essential function for productivity and collaboration. Business leaders must understand the risk of ignoring unstructured data and the value of making that data work for the business. It’s a tall order to identify and bring in a mass of unknown data to the cloud, but the rewards come with a better understanding of your organization, your industry, and your customers. Good things can come from unstructured data — as long as you’re ready to approach the issue with a solid data strategy and a knowledgeable DLP partner like Nightfall.

Corona vs. Corona

When a disaster threatens your brand value

It’s almost an unimaginable coincidence: A crown — corona — is a rather well chosen name for a premium beer, coincides with the name of a devastating agent of disease in reference to the shape of the bugger. How is the brand affected?

From a marketing perspective this is a nightmare. Think of search engines: over a year ago people searching for Corona were looking fire a liquor store; today they want the latest death toll.

It’s not the first time this has happened. The American brand Ayds Chocolate was caught off guard by the AIDS epidemic of the 1980s. But at least the spelling was different.

How do you cope with that? What instructions do you give your marketing department?

The most radical and impractical way is to change your name. This is feasible for a product, but not for a brand like Corona.

Another way is a suffix. Impress it in your clients. Corona for example has started to refer to “Corona beer”. Ayds chocolate changed its name to Diet Ayds but that didn’t work either and the company went out of business.

Introduce a slogan. Corona has been trying out a few already including “the wonder with the lemon”

Localise. The conflict may not exist in certain languages.

Embrace the disaster. This is not feasible with Corona because the situation is too dire. But when over a decade ago red bull was denounced of containing cocaine the company made sure the world knew about it and sales rose.

Consistently watch your trademark for potential threats to its integrity stemming from both other businesses and cultural conflicts. Act quickly to change your brand name if need be!

Double check your brand name candidates for alternative meanings in other languages and cultures!

The African Pee Cola sounded great in the local language, where pee means very good. In English, not so much.

The best-case scenario: Choosing an unfortunate brand name may cause a few laughs.

The worst-case scenario: Choosing an unfortunate brand name may annihilate your company.

Of course a situation like Corona is very rare. The most amazing coincidence is that the last time it also affected a drink ( from “sarsaparilla”, a root beer and a coronavirus from China.

Curiously enough, the wonder with the lemon survived the first years of the worst pandemic for a hundred years with little more than a dip in the stock price of owner Grupo Modelo.

Corona still world’s most valuable beer brand despite namesake virus outbreak

17-Aug-2020 By Stuart Stone

Despite £112m dropping off its brand value in the past year and a name clash with a global pandemic, Corona remains the world’s most valuable beer brand according to Brand Finance. 


Horrifying honorifics

Thai and Japanese are just two languages that have countless ways of saying the same thing depending on who you are, who the other person is, their age, provence, job title or social standing. While those two are especially cumbersome, similar systems exist in Vietnamese, Korean, Malay/Indonesian, and to a lesser extent in Chinese.

These levels of speech are codified and identified by district verb forms, endings, and even choice of words and the languages are called difficult. It is often said that Asian languages are especially prone to this form of honorific speech due to societal norms, but that is not correct.

What’s more, many languages without these codifications do the same thing, as I found out moving back to Europe after 30 years in Asia.

In Chinese the more intimate you are, the more you can dispense with polite phrases. In German, if you do that with family it is considered uneducated. We too have different verb forms and choose different sentence patterns. If codified, “I have no clue” and “I am not familiar with” could be considered structural levels of politeness.

I was greatly surprised when I was addressed as Du (tu in French) vs Sie (vous) by strangers — a change that has happened long ago in post-Franco Spain (tu/usted) but it’s now common in more formal German. (It was always a feature of working class milieus and rural settings.)

Americans have greatly simplified their language but even there you express things differently when talking to your mates vs your boss.

In truth, it is not the honorifics that are different but the codification behind them, which in turn has to do more with language than with societal norms and politics.

Now that horrific part about is that these levels of speech don’t such propagate traditions, but enshrine power structures and class affinities. Despite Chinese Communists insisting that they have abolished class, these dividing honorifics are now making a comeback in the one-party state.

That they persist in monarchies, like Japan and Thailand, in emulation of court etiquette is understandable. That they are resourcing in Xi Jinping’s China is a threat to any glimmer of democratic reform, inasmuch such a glimmer has not long ago be extinguished.

Why Europe loves China

Liberals, Americans in general, people informed about the dismal human rights situation in China, historians – many groups and thinkers keep being amazed at how generously Europe treats China. Merkel and her ilk are called “lefties”, French politicians accused for selling out to the “fellow communists” in Beijing, and Italian politicians of ruining centuries of craftsmanship and tradition in the pursuit of profits.

Many of these accusations are true. The propaganda arm of the Chinese government, in the guise of the Confucius Institutes, is indeed operating freely and without much scrutiny on the continent. Compared to America, European China-policy is much more accommodating, and a socialist tradition in many European countries doesn’t make it look any better. But the real reason is much more pragmatic.

I used to be a diplomat for a EU country. A not very important country in the scheme of things. But even so, my movements and public statements always had to take into consideration what Beijing would say, how the CCP would react. Not because my government loves China, but because Europe is an aging continent, with many fewer young people spending, and many middle-aged technical experts invested in small and medium sized enterprises relying entirely on exports.

From 2000 to 2020, China quickly became the most important export market for these firms. European companies were not self-reliant. Their profits, from cars to machinery, came from China business. So when European politicians criticize China, they are imperiling their businesses, their constituents, and their own political futures. This is true especially for those countries where “export economy” is the dominant thinking, like in Germany.

The EU-China agreement to be ratified these days offers a lot more perks to Chinese companies than to Europeans, for a reason. An estimated 30% of profits of European industry is depending directly on China, another 15% indirectly. This doesn’t measure services and the financial sector.

For example, the agreement allows Chinese staff to work in the EU for three years while EU governments will not be allowed to impose quotas, other limits on the number of specialised workers that come into their country.

So if Europe seems spineless compared to a much younger, much more self-reliant America, that is true, not because of ideological reasons, but practical ones. It is because of Europe’s misguided policies that China could thrive and steal technology for decades. It is Europe’s conservative attitude to immigration that forces it to do business with states that ignore human rights.

As Europeans, we keep being “outraged” about what is happening in Hong Kong, and “concerned” about human rights in China. But we do not have the internal demand, the economic policies, and the political luxury to do otherwise. Europe has painted itself into a corner from which it will be hard to emerge.

The Loneliness of the Virus

One of the biggest problems created by the pandemic and lockdowns is hardly ever discussed at this stage.

We know about the economic impact: finding a job has become near impossible, going for a job interview even legally prohibited in some countries. The long-term medical effects of the disease are as yet unknown and even short-time treatment changes with every mutation we encounter.

Whole professions are under threat, from the beauty industry to hospitality and travel, from sex workers to even unexpected sectors like dentistry. The industry of much cheaper dentists for example that has sprung up across the border where I live, has come to a standstill. A former football player turned gay prostitute with whom I went to school is now working as a builder. Temporarily, for once the current project is finished, there is no new one on the horizon.

I myself am looking for a job. I quit mine just before the epidemic began to relocate to take care of my aging parents, now it turns out I cannot get a new one in the current climate. Unless I knew a programming language – a job easily done from home it turns out. Most of the jobs in my region and industry require onsite teamwork and all the job offers are from last year and currently on hold.

What we don’t discuss is the human toll of loneliness. My parents led a pretty isolated life in retirement but it turns out it was filled with lots of interactions that have since become impossible or even dangerous, from their card games at the seniors’ club to doctors visits, the friendly chat with the neighbors to weekend outings with the church. The three of us are now stuck – and have been for months – in a small apartment, and although not in financial difficulty yet, our days have become filled with isolation and frustration.

I am not the only one of course, and many are worse off. My mate in Zurich lives alone too and is getting worried about his job at the airport; my lover and friend in Malaysia, still a student in his final PhD year cannot find an internship due to corona.

There are, as of this writing, few places left where things are better, and it looks like much worse is likely to come. Life is screeching to a halt. Loneliness is encroaching. The realization is setting in that a pandemic kills not only medically, physically, but also psychologically, emotionally.

Gay men and young people in generally have relied on dating apps to meet up. That has become impossible. Chatting is nice but it’s no substitute for human contact.

It is also hard on the old and particularly hard on children, who, kept from attending school, are losing contact to their mates and the social circles that help form their personalities. Already threatened by social media and technical isolation, they are now physically isolated too. Not an easy lot to bear.

The crisis will take years to resolve itself, medically, economically, and personally. The actual scars may last much longer.

China continues to suck at PR

The new year started out as a victory for the PR, except it was a total disaster.

Three separate incidents occurred to show how bad the communists in Beijing still are at public relations.

Number one, a tweet surfaced by the Chinese embassy to the United States equating the genocide of the Uighurs and forced sterilization of Uighur women as progress and “emancipation”.

Second, the storming of the Capitol was celebrated in Chinese media and equated with the Legco unrest in Hong Kong. The former was a domestic insurrection against a democratically elected government. The latter was a protest against a tyrannical dictatorship.

Finally, China called out the United States for sending the UN ambassador for a visit to Taiwan, arguably a questionable move but one that makes Beijing once again like truculent fools who keep repeating the same protests over and over again as if they had some kind of diplomatic weight.

No doubt these were not all the blunders commuted. Calling the immuring and isolation of 11 million people around Shijiazhuang a necessary control of the epidemic when it is just the same callous disregard for human life as last year is in poor taste.

On Jan 9 China on issued a new order to prohibit firms from complying with foreign laws banning transactions with Chinese companies and individuals, effective immediately. Although within its rights to do so it is another misguided and petulant move.

The reason is China’s distorted self-image. The CCP genuinely believes the no sense it spouts. After so many decades of party control, generation after generation of apparatchiks has been indoctrinated to the level that the party can do no wrong and everything it says must be right. With a brutal dictator like Xi in power, this image has been amplified. Whatever he says is the final word and must not be questioned.

We can expect more for China, but one thing we cannot expect: meaningful change.

Hong Kong 2021

The year started on a shocking note. Distracted by Corona and US Senate elections, the world stood idly by as China continued her assault on democracy in Hong Kong.

The current political crackdown is not only limited to the winners of the 2020 Pro-Democracy Primary Elections, nor to the Resistance Camp formed after the Primaries. This is a large-scale liquidation involving 52 democrats across different political spectrums

This crackdown unmasked the regime’s intention to uproot the democracy of Hong Kong once and for all, restricting their rights to enter or leave Hong Kong, as well as their potential expression of opinions in the future.

According to Police, they believed the Primary Elections is to paralyse the LegCo. This further hints that every citizen who has organised, participated, and 600K citizens voted in the primary elections can be accused of “subverting state power”.

Every LegCo member enjoys the right to veto the budget as it is a right conferred by law, it is definitely not “subversive” by nature. The CCP is asserting that any future actions in the LegCo showing resistance and not complete compliance will be regarded as subversion of gov.

The CCP hopes to stifle all traces of democracy in the city. Hong Kong would only be left with “dissidents” who are loyal to the CCP.

There is no doubt that today’s crackdown is equivalent to the Formosa Incident. 2021 is the start of a decade, and this decade would only bring further crackdown from the CCP. Free World should support us and stop the CCP from encroaching our rights and liberal values.

At the end of the day (January 6) the police announced that there would be hundreds more arrests. Hong Kong has changed beyond recognition.

List of the #Hongkong lawmakers arrested and released today on bail

Day 2

Impressive flow chart from #hkpoliceforce briefing today involves both time travel from July to April and an infinite loop. It is a direct assault on democracy. Distracted by the events in Washington, the #CCP is moving in Hong Kong with shocking speed.

Chart also misses step of CE dissolving LegCo after first veto (BL 50). After that, CE can pass her own budget (BL51) or invoke Emergency Regulations Ord. Also, candidates in the 2nd LegCo election (if not delayed by ERO) could be DQ’d by Returning Officers.

Finally, if 2nd LegCo vetoes another budget, forcing CE to resign under BL52(3) and new CE election, then that’s how the Basic Law was supposed to work. It’s a feature, not a bug, unlike the flow chart’s infinite loop.

Sources HKPF and others
Full text: https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/chapter_4.html #democracy #hongkong

Universal Basic Income Now or Never

The real cost of the pandemic may change the world

Like many others in 2020, I lost my job due to the economic upheaval caused by a global pandemic unleashed by an irresponsible hegemonic superpower which as early as 2013 experimented with bat viruses in its biochemical warfare labels.

I was a witness to some of these invents and at the end of it the ostracism of Taiwan which warned first about the Chinese experiments but was ignored by the WHO.

Thankfully, COVID-19 has a low mortality rate, although it is not the flu and the long-term health effect effects on the respiratory system, nervous system, heart and even musculature may take decades to become apparent.

The real costs of the virus, however, will be economic. Already, the hospitality industry, hotel and travel business around the globe are suffering. Even in countries with low infection rates, businesses are closing down due to lack of vIsitors.

Already pummeled by technological changes, many industries are automating no longer need the armies of workers that made the middle class rich in the second half of the 20th century. The skills needed today can increasingly be complemented or replaced by computers. Unemployment is not rising because we are creating low-pay jobs and those catering to the rich, not meaningful careers that guarantee a livelihood.

A pandemic ruins the travel industry but also the arts. Those dependent on live performances, real spectators rather than the written word or remote endeavors, are going extinct. In most countries museums and theaters are now entirely financed by states, something that cannot last forever. Medication is either unobtainable or prohibitively expensive an countries that have produced generics for e.g. cancer and HIV cannot be visited atm and are even shutting down medical tourism to keep their own citizens alive.

In this situation, the calls for a Universal Basic Income are becoming louder and its implementation inevitable. We can no longer rely on an arbitrary, complicated system of social benefits dependent on antiquated rules. We need to reform tax systems that have impoverished the middle class, diminished the chances of the poor, and is universally exploited by the rich.

A universal basic income is now more necessary than ever because millions will never get back on their feet. Especially for those over 50, finding a job has become near impossible. And if they do, it is a low paid meaningless work far removed from the skills they acquired over the course of a lifetime.

In order to save a generation, we must improve everyone’s life, not just those of the rich. Global decrease in poverty as measured by the UN or WEF is meaningless if millions of middle class citizens fall back into relative poverty. Poverty is measured by a certain amount of dollars per day someone needs to survive. That is nonsense. For worker in a low level income country, driving for Uber Eats may be a godsend; for a flight attendant who lost their job due to COVID, it is a brutal step down – in incoming, quality of life, and self esteem.

Let’s not forget the ailing population. Not ailing from any particular sickness, but ailing from that most trying of old conditions: old age, frailty, and simply the loss of ability to do what a 20-year old could do. Their skills and knowledge no longer have the same value as before. For every person retiring in security and safety, these is another one who lost everything, usually between 50 and 60, to unscrupulous banks, investment advice, loss of income opportunities, or the financial burden of taking care of one’s parents.

We can continue to muddle on, or we can make permanent changes to the way society is organized. Winner takes all capitalism is not the way forward.

Versatility in Creme

The French brought the millefeuille dough to Eastern Europe and from there is took on a life of its own.

It became the basis of countless variations in every European country, usually with a vanilla creme or pudding filling.

It is known by many names, most of which have stemmed from the German cremeschnitte, and literally translate to either cream slice or, in some cases, cream pie. According to Historical Sociolinguistics, it is believed that the origins of the cremeschnitte date back to the blend of two cuisines in the Austro-Hungarian empire.

However, its Polish name Napoleonka indicates that this dessert might have possibly originated from the French mille-feuille, which is also known as the Napoleon – another pastry whose exact origin is unknown, even though its modern form was said to be influenced by improvements of Marie-Antoine Carême, the famous French chef-extraordinaire.
Still, while the Napoleon is made up of three layers of puff pastry alternating with two layers of pastry cream, the typical cremeschnitte is made with only two layers of puff pastry held together by a hefty amount of vanilla-flavored pastry cream, which is sometimes topped with a thin layer of whipped cream.

Cremeschnitte is most often simply sprinkled with icing sugar, but it can also be topped with a glossy and smooth glacé icing, and nicely decorated with a traditional chevron design. Two of the most popular cremeschnitte varieties include the aforesaid Polish Napoleonka or kremówka.

Kremna rezina is a specialty of the Slovenian Lake Bled area. It is a luscious cream cake with a golden, crispy, buttery pastry acting as its base. The base is topped with flavorful vanilla custard, whipped cream, and a layer of thin, buttery dough.
The whole cake is traditionally dusted with icing sugar and served sliced in cubes. The story of kremna rezina (or Bled cream cake) began with the arrival of chef Ištvan Lukačević to Bled’s Park Hotel, where he modified the Hungarian cream cake by adding the right proportions of whipped cream into it, and in 1953, the hotel presented Lukačević’s invention to the public.
The new dessert was a huge success.

Tompouce is a traditional Dutch pastry consisting of a thin puff pastry that is filled with cream and topped with a layer of smooth, pink icing.

It’s almost identical to the Hungarian #cremeschnitte #kremes

The dessert is usually prepared in a rectangular shape. Around King’s Day in Amsterdam, the icing is traditionally colored bright orange in order to represent true Dutch colors.
It is believed that the dessert is named after a performing dwarf with the stage name of Tom Pouce. Tompouce is often served with afternoon tea or coffee, especially at festive events such as birthdays

christmas #desserts #holidays #recipe #rezepte #weihnachten ⁣#bakingfromscratch #bakingisfun #instabaking #baking #backvergnügen #ilovebaking #bakinglove #bakingfun #cakes #holidaybaking #homemade #bakinglife #homebaking #bakery #bakken #kerstmas #natale #navidad #noel #jul #dutchcake

Deceiving names

In the culinary arts very many dishes incorporate place names. Those names ase frequently random inventions (cf French Fries) or an attempt to differentiate a foodstuff from local traditions. (A Vienna sausage doesn’t come from Vienna). Rarely do they indicate a place where the dish is actually from and has a clear connection to a locale.

One of those is the inimitable a Salzburger nockerl, invented there and representing the mountains around the city.

Salzburger nockerl are light and delicate vanilla-flavored dumplings which are, due to the method of preparation, often labeled as a soufflé. As the name implies, the dish was invented in Salzburg in the 17th century, and as an ode to its place of origin, when preparing these sweet treats, the airy mass is arranged on a baking tray in three mounds, representing the three hills that surround the city.

The dish is always served warm, either as a dessert or a main dish, and it is traditionally dusted with powdered sugar and paired with various fruit sauces.

Heat the milk with the cut-open vanilla pod and lemon juice. Remove from the stove and leave to sit. Remove the pod. Smear an oval-shaped, ovenproof form with butter and pour in enough vanilla milk to cover the bottom.

With a hand mixer, mix the cooled egg whites with a pinch of salt and a third of the sugar until very stiff. Slowly add the rest of the sugar and continue to beat until the mixture is thick and creamy.

Preheat the oven to 220°C / 428°F. Add the egg yolks, lemon rind, vanilla sugar, flour, and cornstarch to the egg white mixture and fold three or four times with a whisk (the mass mustn’t become homogenous). Make 4 pyramid-shaped nockerl, placing them next to each other in the baking tray. Bake for 10-12 minutes until golden brown..

Dust with icing sugar and serve quickly so that the Nockerl don’t collapse.

christmas #desserts #holidays #sweets #nachspeise #postre #pudding #süssspeise #süßes #rezeptideen #rezepte #noel #weihnachtsbäckerei

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